Key highlights from this interesting read:
Economic cycles may be shorter and more day-today uncertainty.
A robust employment market and wage growth have supported consumer spending even in an environment of rising prices.
Signs that core inflation remains sticky given tight labor market conditions.
Last year when equities and bonds struggled, pother asset classes like infrastructure and property delivered positive returns
Although energy prices have dropped, food inflation remains stubbornly high along with the core components.
Multi-asset allocation may need to evolve more dynamically to keep up with the economic cycles.
Positive exposure to risk factors such as inflation risk, and tilted toward the solution to the problems of coming decade such as shifting patterns in global trade and necessary climate transition.
Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates this year unless there is a deep recession.
UK and Europe to see more rate tightening given stickier inflation.
Historic data points to lag from the last rate hike to the onset of the recession. Anywhere between 5-15 months.
S&P 500 seems significantly overvalued as compared to its fundamentals.
S&P Index has shown a year on year decline in the EPS Growth.
The recent earning season continues to show that companies are performing very differently even when in the same sector due to tilts in exposure, product mix, pricing strength, balance sheet strength and better management.
In the US-China tensions; neither side wants, or can afford major disruptions in the current economic environment.
Various pockets of mispricing that are occurring in san increasingly news-driven market.
In an era of Greedflation as companies are keeping prices high even as input costs have slowed down.
Private markets AUM is expected to reach $18tn by 2027 which is double form 2021.
Higher interest rate obligations could trigger a wave of defaults in weaker companies as cost of capital is more expensive have in decades.
AUM in Private debt has grown from 500bn in 2013 to 1.2tn in 2021 and is expected double to 2.3tn by 2027.
Opportunities in the Food system, energy transition and the restoration of the natural world where there is still capital in its early days.
A flight to quality is likely to result in resilience for prime properties with secure cashflows.
Comments